FINANCIAL PLANNING : A Reality Check

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Friday 20 June 2008

When is a good time to invest?

Focus on your long-term goals. And stop trying to time the market. Even the wisest pundits have failed to predict the ‘top’ and the bottom of stock markets


When should I invest? Whether the markets are up or down, this is a million dollar question that constantly looms over an investor’s mind. Should he/she invest now or wait for the markets to fall even further. This waiting for a ‘more opportune’ time goes on and on. As a result, time passes us by.


Over the last two years, I have seen people withhold the decision to invest, despite my spending considerable time with them to convince them to make the investments. Their reason - they feared that the market has ‘topped’ or they had the ‘greed’ to wait for the markets to hit the bottom.


It is not possible to time the market. Even the wisest pundits have more often than not failed to predict the exact ‘top’ and the ‘bottom’ of stock market.


So is there really a ‘right’ time to invest or is it merely a myth or an illusion? The answer is a YES and a NO. ‘No’ because there is nothing like a right month or a date to begin. And ‘yes’ the right time to start (if you already haven’t) is NOW!


There is an old adage – ‘buy low and sell high’. But reality is a lot different from that. Most investors actually end up doing the reverse. They get into the market after the prices have risen because they believe that the ‘bull run’ is back. Such investors tend to panic the minute the prices begin to slip.


Investors must have a horizon for all equity or equity-related (mutual funds) investments of at least 5 years. The longer the better, since only then will they realize the ‘power of compounding’. Discipline and planning are crucial to achieving the goal that the investor has set (be it his own retirement or children’s education or marriage, or any other goal).


As a basic thumb-rule, during volatile markets (like the one we are currently witnessing) invest every time there is every dip. There should be no fear in the investor’s mind if he/she has a long horizon. In the near term, he/she may see negative returns because of volatility. If he looks at the big picture and has a long horizon, he should just keep plugging in the money. The returns will happen in due course.


If you wait to time the market, fear (of seeing short-term negatives) and greed (of trying to catch the bottom) may leave you stranded, thereby seriously affecting your long-term goals and objectives.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

I am a novice and new entrant in this arena. However my views on when to invest is that one should keep putting in money whenever there is a dip as MJ has rightly pointed out. At the same time, to make it clearer and easier for the common man I would suggest that one should check those scripts which have actually dipped. Rather, ear mark the scripts you are interested in and then when they dip, put in the money.

All the best....Sundeep

Anonymous said...

Good advice - Short term is for traders and speculators - you may lose, you may win. Investors have long term perspective - can expect reasonable returns to beat inflation.